Research

The Differential Responses of Farmers on Private and Public Lands to Droughts in the Brazilian Amazon
with Matthew Reimer and Kevin Novan
📄 Download Draft (Last Update 10/16/2025)

Abstract

Climate change has increased the frequency of drought events in the Amazon. Deforestation worsens local climate dynamics, and weather shocks can, in turn, influence land-use decisions. In the Brazilian Amazon, where land tenure is a mix of public and private holdings, landholders on public lands may lack incentives to manage forests sustainably. This study examines how droughts differentially affect pasture expansion on public versus private lands. Using spatially matched comparisons within 0.5° grid cells, we find that during drought years, ranchers on public lands expand pasture area by 30% more than in baseline years, while private landholders show no significant response. We explore mechanisms behind this difference and find that drought-induced pasture degradation leads to expansion in both tenure types. However, ranchers on public lands expand pasture by 20% more than those on private lands in response to similar degradation. Moreover, only public landholders continue to expand even after controlling for degradation, suggesting additional drivers, such as lower deforestation costs in drier, more flammable forests. These findings indicate that climate-induced droughts increase deforestation pressure on public forests, which store substantial carbon stocks and cover over two-thirds of the Amazon. This vulnerability complicates efforts to mitigate climate change. Policymakers should enhance monitoring of public lands during drought years, improve enforcement of property rights, and consider taxing extensive cattle ranching. While our results highlight tenure-based differences under short-term drought conditions, they do not imply that one tenure system performs better in environmental measures under long-term aridification.

The Effects of the Amazon Soy Moratorium on Cattle Ranchers’ Land Use Decisions with Matthew Reimer and Kevin Novan

In the 2000s, soybean cultivation rapidly expanded across the Brazilian Amazon, prompting concern over deforestation. In response, major soy traders signed the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM), agreeing not to purchase soybeans grown on land deforested after 2008. While the ASM significantly reduced soy-driven deforestation, soybean expansion continued by converting existing pastureland. This raises concerns about leakage, whereby displaced cattle ranching shifts into forested areas, undermining the policy’s impact. This study investigates the indirect effects of the ASM on land-use decisions in the cattle ranching sector. We explore whether ranchers displaced from pastureland respond by deforesting new areas, intensifying production, or reallocating land to other buyers. We also assess whether the inability to resell post-2008 deforested land to soybean farmers creates disincentives for deforestation. By examining these behavioral responses, we assess the broader environmental effectiveness of the ASM and highlight the importance of considering cross-sectoral spillovers in conservation policy design.

Green Deserts with Ignacio Oliva

Conservation and restoration of forested land are widely promoted as strategies to mitigate climate change. In particular, industrial tree plantations (ITPs) such as Eucalyptus and Pinus radiata have expanded rapidly due to their commercial viability and carbon sequestration potential. However, these fast-growing exotic species are highly water-intensive and may compromise freshwater availability. This paper examines the hydrological consequences of afforestation with ITPs in Chile, where government policies in the late 20th century incentivized large-scale land conversion. Using variation in upstream land use within water basins, we estimate the impact of ITP expansion on downstream surface water availability.

Planting Fire: Does the replacement of native vegetation by forest plantations increase wildfire risk? with Ignacio Oliva